Rent or buy: what it takes, and how long you stay
One example household, built from published US national figures: a $429,100 home (median existing-home price, all housing types, August 2026), a 7.28% mortgage (survey average, week ending 1 October 2026) and $2,289 a month rent (typical single-family asking rent, August 2026). Your local numbers will differ.
- Cash needed to buy$98,693
20% down plus 3% closing costs. The model leaves out a renter's deposit and moving costs.
- Monthly cash, year 1$973 more a month to own
Owning $3,283 vs renting $2,310. About $275 of that pays down the loan, which the buyer keeps as equity.
- After the years you stay Before-tax exampleThe renter is ahead by $52,505
After 7 years, in this example, before taxes, if the renter invests the same up-front cash and each year's difference.
- What changes the resultRent $100 a month higher: the renter is ahead by $41,555
The renter's lead after 7 years with comparable rent $100 a month higher, in this example, before taxes. Two modest changes together (faster home price growth and a lower mortgage rate) can reverse the result.
- What to find locally
- Rent for a genuinely comparable home nearby
- The full monthly cost of owning: loan payment, property tax, insurance, upkeep, any HOA or mortgage insurance
- How long you are likely to stay
Every input with its source and date, the tests we ran, what the model leaves out (including taxes), and a worksheet. No sign-up needed.
- Yr 1Renter +$40,815
- Yr 2Renter +$42,960
- Yr 3Renter +$45,044
- Yr 4Renter +$47,054
- Yr 5Renter +$48,977
- Yr 6Renter +$50,799
- Yr 7Renter +$52,505
- Yr 8Renter +$54,078
- Yr 9Renter +$55,498
- Yr 10Renter +$56,746
Calculated by the Rent vs Buy model, Episode 1 v4, from the example household above. Annual investing; taxes not modelled. An illustration, not a forecast.
Every issue has the same three parts.
The decision
One question a real household is facing, set out as a choice between options. No answer assumed.
The workings
A free decision page for each episode: every number with its source and date, the assumptions, the tests, and what would change the answer.
The model
The Episode 1 spreadsheet is free and works in Excel. Later episodes say whether their model is free or paid, and what a paid version adds.
See the sources. Check the assumptions. Follow the calculation.
VeraAI HOST
Presents the weekly video.
- A public example and decision page for every episode, with no sign-up needed.
- Source dates and the model version on every page. Episode 1: Freddie Mac, NAR and Zillow figures from August to October 2026; Rent vs Buy model v4.
- What we leave out, said plainly. Episode 1 is a before-tax example: taxes can materially change the comparison.
- Corrections are listed, with their date, on the page they affect. Found an error? Email corrections@decidelikeacfo.com.
- No recommendations of financial products, and no advice on your personal situation. Education, not advice.
Written by a chartered accountant with 15 years in banking.
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